The Targeting Model of Partisanship: Explaining the Origins and Consequences of Expressive Partisanship

Pereira Filho, Alvaro Joao

The Targeting Model of Partisanship: Explaining the Origins and Consequences of Expressive Partisanship

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PereiraFilho_AlvaroJoao_PhD_2025_thesis.pdf (4.21 MB)

Date

2025-09-04

Authors

Pereira Filho, Alvaro Joao

Abstract

In many democracies, politics has become more personal. Citizens have demonstrated animosity between partisan groups, distorted perceptions about reality, and loyalties that influence voting decisions while diminishing the accountability of elites. As these outcomes are evident, the nature and consequences of partisanship remain less understood. Scholarship rarely examines partisanship within the context of intense political competition. This dissertation aims to understand why partisanship becomes more personal due to changes in party strategies. Existing research distinguishes between instrumental (based on a rational approach) and expressive partisanship. While instrumental partisanship refers to support based on evaluations of policy issues and leadership, expressive partisanship reflects a personal sense of belonging and a desire for differentiation from other groups. I propose a model of partisanship that integrates these two types of attachments, theorizing the role that political parties can play in shaping a more expressive partisanship. Recently, parties have been able to collect information about voters and have developed personalized strategies using targeted appeals to social groups. Depending on prior associations between groups and parties, these appeals often match (i.e., in-targeting), mismatch (out-targeting), or fail to align prior associations with partisan predisposition (broad appeals), in turn impact partisanship. I argue that in-targeting both informs voters about group affiliations and primes partisan identity, which boosts expressive partisanship among supporters. In contrast, out-targeting distances the party from established expectations, leading to a decline in expressive partisanship. Empirically, I draw on evidence from diverse types of survey data (e.g., observational, panel data, and experimental) from Canada and the United Kingdom, where parties diversified strategies related to group-party associations. My research finds that in-targeting enhances expressive partisanship and its affective consequences, such as polarization, perceptual gaps, and voting decisions. This dissertation contributes to behaviour and comparative scholarship by highlighting how party strategies and partisan reasoning produce personal outcomes in the contemporary electorate.

Summary for Lay Audience

In multiple countries, voters are deeply divided and engaged in politics than before. Many are hostile to the opposition, exhibiting distorted perceptions of political topics and naive loyalty in their voting choices. Therefore, understanding why partisan support has become so visceral is pivotal in the field of political science. Researchers either consider how partisans think or how parties compete, but how partisans consider their support under competition is rare. In this dissertation, I ask: Why has partisanship become more personal? Partisanship is the way that citizens demonstrate a connection with a particular party. This connection can occur through evaluations of party performance, known as instrumental partisanship, and through a personal sense of membership, referred to as expressive partisanship. I propose a theory that combines these two connections and examines the influence of political parties on individuals who are more personally involved in politics. Parties can collect information about voters using social media and reach out through tailored messages, known as targeted appeals. These appeals can target groups with a traditional association with the party (in-targeting), groups that support the opposition (out targeting), and groups with no affiliation at all (broad appeals), having distinct consequences on people’s partisanship. I argue that in-targeting indicates that the party is looking after its allies, which emphasizes the sense of membership and strengthens expressive partisanship. In contrast, out-targeting informs voters that the party is looking after the opposition supporters, which highlights the distance between strategy and expectations and diminishes expressive partisanship. I base my findings on diverse types of survey data, including panel data, opinion polls, and an experiment with Canadian and British voters. In these countries, parties have employed a range of strategies for targeting group support over time. My findings reveal that in-targeting increases expressive partisanship, which makes politics more emotional and personal. This dissertation contributes to the political science literature by exploring the connections between people’s relationships with a party within the contemporary political landscape, considering the role that parties play in influencing politics with precision to target specific groups within the electorate.