Retention of Post-Secondary Graduates in their City of Study

Mpinda, Isaac

Retention of Post-Secondary Graduates in their City of Study

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Mpinda_Isaac_PhD_2026_thesis.pdf (3.09 MB)

Date

2026-03-30

Authors

Mpinda, Isaac

Abstract

Canada faces a profound demographic crisis characterized by low fertility rates, population aging, and stark regional disparities in growth, with rural and smaller urban communities experiencing acute brain drain and labor shortages. While postsecondary graduates, both domestic and international, represent a strategic pool of skilled labor that could alleviate these pressures, their retention patterns remain poorly understood at the city level, where graduates directly interact with local labor markets and community networks. This dissertation addresses this gap through an integrated article format comprising three empirical chapters that examine graduate retention across multiple scales and populations using linked longitudinal administrative data from Statistics Canada.

Drawing on human capital theory, internal migration theory, integration theory, and life course perspectives, the research follows 1.5 million graduates from 2009–2013 cohorts over five years post-graduation. Chapter 2 establishes that retention is shaped by immigration status (permanent residents show 24% lower mobility hazards than Canadians), study location (graduates in non-Census Metropolitan Areas face 3.4 times higher exit risks than those in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver), and credential type (non-degree graduates exhibit stronger local attachment than university graduates). Chapter 3 develops a novel study discipline-occupation crosswalk to assess field-of-study alignment with local occupations, finding modest but significant retention benefits when graduates’ disciplines match dominant city-level employment sectors. Chapter 4 introduces a critical dual-scale framework distinguishing national retention (remaining in Canada) from local retention (remaining in the study city), revealing that these processes operate through divergent mechanisms: permanent residency pathways and labor-market-aligned credentials drive national retention, while co-ethnic networks, urban scale, and family formation shape intra-Canadian mobility.

The dissertation makes three key contributions: (1) it helps establish the city as a critical yet understudied scale for understanding graduate mobility; (2) it demonstrates that policies successful at the national level may fail locally, exposing tensions between federal immigration objectives and subnational development needs; and (3) it provides evidence-based guidance for place-based retention strategies, particularly for smaller communities struggling to anchor talent. Findings underscore that retaining skilled graduates requires coordinated interventions across immigration policy, labor market development, and family-supportive infrastructure, not education recruitment alone.

Summary for Lay Audience

Canada faces a growing demographic divide. While major cities like Toronto, Montréal, and Vancouver attract people and jobs, smaller communities across the country, particularly in rural areas and Atlantic Canada, lose young, educated residents faster than they replace them. This "brain drain" creates labour shortages in healthcare, skilled trades, and essential services, threatening long-term viability. Domestic and international postsecondary graduates, including Canadian students who study away from home and international students who come to Canada for their education, represent promising talent to revitalize these communities. Yet, little research examines what keeps graduates in their study cities after finishing degrees. Following 1.5 million graduates over five years, this research uncovered a critical disconnect: staying in Canada and staying in your study city differ significantly. International graduates obtaining permanent residency are likely to remain in Canada, but without targeted support, often relocate from smaller cities to major urban centres where jobs and immigrant communities are concentrated. Graduates of college programs, including diplomas and certificates, show stronger local attachment than university graduates, likely because training aligns with regional needs like nursing or skilled trades. Conversely, those with advanced degrees are more mobile, seeking specialized opportunities in large cities. Most strikingly, graduates studying in small towns and rural areas face over three times the risk of leaving compared to those studying in Toronto, Montréal, or Vancouver, revealing how geography shapes retention. These findings challenge an assumption: that simply recruiting international students to study in smaller communities will solve local labour shortages. Without coordinated efforts to help graduates transition from students to settled residents, many will continue to flow toward prosperous cities. Solutions require faster pathways to permanent residency, stronger connections between education and local employers, and family-friendly supports like affordable housing and childcare. For communities hoping to anchor talent, the message is clear: retention requires more than recruitment. It demands place-based strategies that recognize that a policy that works in Toronto may fail in Thunder Bay, and that keeping skilled graduates means addressing not just jobs but the full package of belonging that makes a place feel like home.